Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints33
- Jrue HolidayAssists13
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Heat- Nikola JovicPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–136
- Q40.3Toumani Camara makes two point shot131–136
- Q40.6Toumani Camara offensive rebound129–136
- Q42.1Deni Avdija misses 27-foot three point jumper129–136
- Q44.9Trail Blazers offensive team rebound129–136
- Q47.6Deni Avdija misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–136
- Q415.0Nikola Jovic makes free throw 2 of 2129–136
- Q415.0Nikola Jovic makes free throw 1 of 2129–135
- Q415.0Jrue Holiday personal foul129–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:26Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 123 – 123 MIA · POR 30% → 53% +22POR 30% → 53%+22 pts
- Q42:40Donovan Clingan makes 2-foot hook shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 125 – 124 MIA · POR 44% → 61% +17POR 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q42:33Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Jovic assists)POR 125 – 126 MIA · MIA 39% → 57% +18MIA 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q42:16Donovan Clingan makes 1-foot two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 127 – 127 MIA · POR 34% → 52% +19POR 34% → 52%+19 pts
- Q41:32Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)POR 127 – 132 MIA · MIA 70% → 92% +22MIA 70% → 92%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- POR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- POR: Elo 51.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 122.5 – 119.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +59 | −6 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −41 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | POR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +13 Elo | POR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 122.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 116.613th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +6.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 108.64th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.2 | Pace | 107.01st of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301562 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Elo rating | 151814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+59 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−41 Elo
Heat
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.