Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints30
- Tre MannAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds12
Heat- Norman PowellPoints25
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists9
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–126
- Q40.1Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound108–126
- Q40.1Moussa Diabate misses two point shot108–126
- Q41.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound108–126
- Q45.0Liam McNeeley misses 27-foot three point jumper108–126
- Q410.6Liam McNeeley defensive rebound108–126
- Q413.6Pelle Larsson misses free throw 1 of 1108–126
- Q413.6Kon Knueppel shooting foul108–126
- Q413.6Pelle Larsson makes two point shot108–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:50Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three point jumper (Liam McNeeley assists)CHA 62 – 66 MIA · CHA 20% → 26% +6CHA 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q22:23Tre Mann makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 65 – 66 MIA · CHA 26% → 33% +7CHA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q38:45Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 72 – 76 MIA · CHA 19% → 26% +7CHA 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q36:20Norman Powell makes driving layupCHA 80 – 82 MIA · MIA 62% → 68% +6MIA 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q48:41Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Tre Mann assists)CHA 95 – 101 MIA · CHA 9% → 17% +8CHA 9% → 17%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML CHA +210 / MIA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 68.8%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -221
- CHA +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.5 – 122.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −14 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | CHA crossed 1 time zone and MIA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +138 Elo | MIA 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 122.44th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 117.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +4.89th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 114.114th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 109.76th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.5 | Pace | 106.91st of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 30th of 301423 | Opponent Elo | 15148th of 30 |
| 28th of 301345 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–8 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Oct 28CHA 117 @ MIA 144Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Mar 23CHA 105 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Mar 10CHA 105 @ MIA 102Picked MIA 77%Miss
- Nov 27MIA 98 @ CHA 94Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Oct 26MIA 114 @ CHA 106Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Jan 14CHA 87 @ MIA 104Picked MIA 72%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 104 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Dec 11MIA 116 @ CHA 114Picked MIA 57%Hit