Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints23
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–122
- Q40.7Aaron Gordon bad pass (Kel'el Ware steals)112–122
- Q424.8Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Simone Fontecchio112–122
- Q424.8Norman Powell out of bounds lost ball turnover112–122
- Q432.3Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.112–122
- Q432.3Peyton Watson enters the game for Jamal Murray112–122
- Q432.3Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Nikola Jokic112–122
- Q432.3Heat Full timeout112–122
- Q432.3Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2112–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:44Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 27 – 20 DEN · MIA 34% → 40% +6MIA 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q27:54Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Simone Fontecchio assists)MIA 45 – 43 DEN · MIA 27% → 33% +7MIA 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q25:22Aaron Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)MIA 50 – 54 DEN · DEN 73% → 79% +6DEN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q23:52Davion Mitchell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 55 – 57 DEN · MIA 19% → 25% +6MIA 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q37:58Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIA 77 – 85 DEN · DEN 80% → 86% +6DEN 80% → 86%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML MIA +290 / DEN -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 62.1%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -309
- MIA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.5 – 126.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −32 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +86 Elo | DEN 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30123.9 | Points scored | 125.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 113.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.9 | Margin | +11.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 120.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 110.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Pace | 101.919th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15983rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–4 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.