Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints26
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–130
- Q40.1Kings offensive team rebound124–130
- Q40.3DeMar DeRozan misses heave jump shot124–130
- Q45.1Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound124–130
- Q46.8Christian Braun misses free throw 2 of 2124–130
- Q46.8Nuggets offensive team rebound124–130
- Q46.8Christian Braun misses free throw 1 of 2124–130
- Q46.8Zach LaVine personal foul124–130
- Q49.1Zach LaVine personal foul124–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:15Dennis Schroder makes 19-foot jumperSAC 104 – 110 DEN · SAC 8% → 13% +4SAC 8% → 13%+4 pts
- Q47:59Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)SAC 104 – 113 DEN · DEN 88% → 94% +6DEN 88% → 94%+6 pts
- Q47:26Bruce Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 106 – 116 DEN · DEN 90% → 96% +5DEN 90% → 96%+5 pts
- Q47:08Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 109 – 116 DEN · SAC 4% → 10% +5SAC 4% → 10%+5 pts
- Q45:16Keon Ellis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 115 – 122 DEN · SAC 3% → 8% +5SAC 3% → 8%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML SAC +450 / DEN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.9%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -481
- SAC +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 124.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −39 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +114 Elo | DEN 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30115.0 | Points scored | 124.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 111.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.5 | Margin | +12.23rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 120.72nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 108.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301484 | Elo rating | 15944th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–5 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 9DEN 124 @ SAC 116Picked DEN 63%Hit
- Mar 5SAC 110 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Jan 23SAC 123 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Dec 16DEN 130 @ SAC 129Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Feb 28SAC 96 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 65%Hit
- Feb 14SAC 102 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 60%Miss
- Feb 9DEN 106 @ SAC 135Picked SAC 53%Hit
- Dec 2DEN 117 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 50%Hit