Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints35
- Jrue HolidayAssists12
- Donovan ClinganRebounds10
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints26
- Saddiq BeyAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–117
- Q410.7Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup125–117
- Q415.7Toumani Camara makes 1-foot dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)125–115
- Q425.5Saddiq Bey kicked ball violation123–115
- Q439.8Herbert Jones out of bounds bad pass turnover123–115
- Q440.7Toumani Camara out of bounds bad pass turnover123–115
- Q456.4Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2123–115
- Q456.4Pelicans offensive team rebound123–114
- Q456.4Herbert Jones misses free throw 1 of 2123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q247.1Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)POR 54 – 57 NO · NO 32% → 40% +8NO 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q225.6Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 57 – 57 NO · POR 60% → 68% +8POR 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q44:59Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)POR 110 – 105 NO · NO 7% → 15% +9NO 7% → 15%+9 pts
- Q43:28Deni Avdija makes 5-foot two point shotPOR 114 – 109 NO · POR 78% → 87% +10POR 78% → 87%+10 pts
- Q42:52Shaedon Sharpe makes 2-foot layup (Toumani Camara assists)POR 116 – 110 NO · POR 85% → 93% +8POR 85% → 93%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -8.5
- ML POR -360 / NO +280
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -7
- POR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- POR: Elo 75.2%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- POR -297
- NO +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 120.5 – 112.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | −33 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +192 Elo | POR 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 108.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 121.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −13.328th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 120.529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.5 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 30 |
| 20th of 301484 | Elo rating | 135827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+58 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
Pelicans
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–4 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.