New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists4
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds10
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints42
- Collin GillespieAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–121
- Q47.2Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 298–121
- Q47.2Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 297–121
- Q47.2Khaman Maluach shooting foul96–121
- Q413.1Khaman Maluach lost ball turnover (Derik Queen steals)96–121
- Q425.3Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound96–121
- Q429.2Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 11-foot pullup jump shot96–121
- Q449.4Bryce McGowens turnover96–121
- Q449.4Bryce McGowens offensive foul96–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Jeremiah Fears makes 27-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 3 – 2 PHX · NO 22% → 27% +5NO 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q18:37Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)NO 8 – 4 PHX · NO 28% → 33% +6NO 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q18:20Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)NO 8 – 7 PHX · PHX 67% → 72% +6PHX 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q17:58Jeremiah Fears makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotNO 11 – 7 PHX · NO 28% → 34% +6NO 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q15:12Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 14 – 15 PHX · NO 20% → 25% +5NO 20% → 25%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -7.5
- ML NO +280 / PHX -360
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5.5
- PHX 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 71.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -297
- NO +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.5 – 117.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −34 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +155 Elo | PHX 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 116.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 116.715th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−12.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.3 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–18th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148721st of 30 |
| 27th of 301368 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–3 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.