Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Devin BookerRebounds10
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints21
- James HardenAssists13
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–103
- Q44.4Mark Williams defensive rebound114–103
- Q46.1John Collins misses 12-foot pullup jump shot114–103
- Q416.7shot clock turnover114–103
- Q439.5Devin Booker defensive rebound114–103
- Q442.6Nicolas Batum misses 22-foot three point jumper114–103
- Q448.7Dillon Brooks makes driving layup114–103
- Q456.7Kris Dunn bad pass (Dillon Brooks steals)112–103
- Q459.3Devin Booker bad pass (Kris Dunn steals)112–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:15Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 88 – 80 LAC · PHX 65% → 76% +11PHX 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q45:49Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)PHX 98 – 93 LAC · LAC 14% → 26% +12LAC 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q45:29Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 101 – 93 LAC · PHX 74% → 87% +12PHX 74% → 87%+12 pts
- Q45:12Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)PHX 101 – 96 LAC · LAC 12% → 25% +12LAC 12% → 25%+12 pts
- Q44:50Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 104 – 96 LAC · PHX 76% → 89% +12PHX 76% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML PHX +160 / LAC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 55.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -170
- PHX +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −43 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +35 Elo | LAC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 115.110th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −4.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 116.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.7 | Pace | 98.230th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 151515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 6–4 LAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Nov 6LAC 102 @ PHX 115Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Oct 24PHX 102 @ LAC 129Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Mar 4LAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked LAC 57%Miss
- Jan 27LAC 109 @ PHX 111Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Oct 31PHX 125 @ LAC 119Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 23PHX 116 @ LAC 113Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 10PHX 124 @ LAC 108Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 9LAC 105 @ PHX 92Picked PHX 65%Miss