LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints23
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q41.6shot clock turnover102–115
- Q425.7Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes 2-foot dunk (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)102–115
- Q434.7Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound100–115
- Q436.1Jordan Goodwin misses two point shot100–115
- Q458.9Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound100–115
- Q41:01Jahmyl Telfort misses free throw 2 of 2100–115
- Q41:01Clippers offensive team rebound100–115
- Q41:01Jahmyl Telfort misses free throw 1 of 2100–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:18Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAC 47 – 43 PHX · PHX 36% → 44% +8PHX 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q21:01Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)LAC 47 – 48 PHX · PHX 49% → 58% +9PHX 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q311:19Jalen Green makes 29-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)LAC 51 – 51 PHX · PHX 46% → 55% +9PHX 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q310:44Royce O'Neale makes 31-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)LAC 53 – 54 PHX · PHX 49% → 58% +9PHX 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q39:44Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 55 – 59 PHX · PHX 58% → 67% +9PHX 58% → 67%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML LAC +125 / PHX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 59.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -133
- LAC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.0 – 113.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −89 | −15 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAC crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +66 Elo | PHX 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 116.915th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 120.324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.4 | Margin | −3.421st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.3 | Pace | 103.216th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148624th of 30 |
| 14th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–5 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 24PHX 102 @ LAC 129Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Mar 4LAC 117 @ PHX 119Picked LAC 57%Miss
- Jan 27LAC 109 @ PHX 111Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Oct 31PHX 125 @ LAC 119Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 23PHX 116 @ LAC 113Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 10PHX 124 @ LAC 108Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Apr 9LAC 105 @ PHX 92Picked PHX 65%Miss
- Jan 8PHX 111 @ LAC 138Picked LAC 65%Hit