Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints38
- Grayson AllenAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Quinten PostRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–118
- Q46.6shot clock turnover107–118
- Q431.1Mark Williams makes 2-foot dunk (Grayson Allen assists)107–118
- Q445.0Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound105–118
- Q448.1Moses Moody misses 25-foot three point jumper105–118
- Q458.8Pat Spencer defensive rebound105–118
- Q41:01Grayson Allen misses 23-foot three point jumper105–118
- Q41:20Buddy Hield enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis105–118
- Q41:20(01:20) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)105–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:06Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)PHX 5 – 0 GS · PHX 24% → 30% +5PHX 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q19:56Quinten Post makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)PHX 5 – 3 GS · GS 70% → 76% +5GS 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:02Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)PHX 5 – 8 GS · GS 79% → 83% +4GS 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q32:05Pat Spencer makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)PHX 79 – 91 GS · GS 90% → 94% +4GS 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q410:52Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)PHX 85 – 95 GS · GS 88% → 93% +6GS 88% → 93%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML PHX +360 / GS -500
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5
- GS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- GS: Elo 68.9%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -383
- PHX +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.5 – 123.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +8 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +138 Elo | GS 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 115.713th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.919th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15413rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 154411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–3 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit
- Nov 30GS 105 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Hit
- Feb 10PHX 112 @ GS 113Picked GS 55%Hit
- Dec 12GS 116 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 59%Hit
- Nov 22GS 115 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 24PHX 108 @ GS 104Picked GS 55%Miss