New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints41
- Derik QueenAssists8
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds9
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists13
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
- Q46.5Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound119–126
- Q49.1Derik Queen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–126
- Q412.3Pelicans offensive team rebound119–126
- Q412.3Victor Wembanyama blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 2-foot driving layup119–126
- Q419.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
- Q419.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2119–125
- Q419.4Herbert Jones personal foul119–124
- Q420.5Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound119–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:28Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)NO 105 – 113 SA · SA 86% → 94% +8SA 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q44:32Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)NO 109 – 113 SA · NO 7% → 17% +10NO 7% → 17%+10 pts
- Q43:55Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 112 – 115 SA · NO 9% → 21% +12NO 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q43:40De'Aaron Fox makes 4-foot driving floating jump shotNO 112 – 117 SA · SA 79% → 88% +9SA 79% → 88%+9 pts
- Q459.7Jeremiah Fears makes two point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 119 – 122 SA · NO 3% → 11% +9NO 3% → 11%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SA -11.5
- ML NO +425 / SA -650
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7.5
- SA 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- SA: Elo 76.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -455
- NO +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 105.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +64 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +208 Elo | SA 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 118.315th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 109.61st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−12.9 | Margin | +8.64th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 116.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 147026th of 30 |
| 26th of 301371 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–4 SA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.