Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Ryan RollinsAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints26
- Cooper FlaggAssists4
- Cooper FlaggRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–114
- Q40.2Bobby Portis defensive rebound116–114
- Q41.2P.J. Washington misses free throw 3 of 3116–114
- Q41.2Myles Turner enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.116–114
- Q41.2Caleb Martin enters the game for Brandon Williams116–114
- Q41.2Daniel Gafford enters the game for Naji Marshall116–114
- Q41.2Moussa Cisse enters the game for Max Christie116–114
- Q41.2Mavericks offensive team rebound116–114
- Q41.2P.J. Washington misses free throw 2 of 3116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:21Max Christie makes 23-foot three point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)MIL 108 – 107 DAL · DAL 20% → 40% +20DAL 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q41:54Kyle Kuzma makes tip shotMIL 110 – 109 DAL · MIL 42% → 62% +21MIL 42% → 62%+21 pts
- Q428.7Cooper Flagg makes driving layupMIL 112 – 113 DAL · DAL 29% → 69% +40DAL 29% → 69%+40 pts
- Q417.9Ryan Rollins makes driving layupMIL 114 – 113 DAL · MIL 26% → 75% +49MIL 26% → 75%+49 pts
- Q414.9Kyle Kuzma makes two point shotMIL 116 – 113 DAL · MIL 77% → 99% +21MIL 77% → 99%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML MIL -165 / DAL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- DAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 116.0 – 112.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −41 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +116 Elo | MIL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 106.530th of 30 |
| 19th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 113.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −6.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 102.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.8 | Pace | 104.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 147325th of 30 |
| 9th of 301543 | Elo rating | 142325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–0 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.