Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds7
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints19
- Brandon WilliamsAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q46.3Devin Booker defensive rebound123–114
- Q49.9Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point jumper123–114
- Q414.5Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2123–114
- Q414.5Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2122–114
- Q414.5Max Christie personal foul121–114
- Q415.0Klay Thompson bad pass (Devin Booker steals)121–114
- Q415.7Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2121–114
- Q415.7Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2120–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:50Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)PHX 44 – 43 DAL · DAL 36% → 44% +8DAL 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q43:23Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)PHX 114 – 108 DAL · DAL 4% → 11% +8DAL 4% → 11%+8 pts
- Q42:58Max Christie makes dunk (Cooper Flagg assists)PHX 114 – 110 DAL · DAL 10% → 19% +9DAL 10% → 19%+9 pts
- Q41:48Brandon Williams makes 4-foot two point shotPHX 115 – 112 DAL · DAL 9% → 20% +12DAL 9% → 20%+12 pts
- Q41:25Grayson Allen makes 4-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 117 – 112 DAL · PHX 82% → 94% +11PHX 82% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML PHX -130 / DAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 56.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 113.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −32 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +46 Elo | PHX 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 107.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 113.57th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −6.424th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 102.830th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 108.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.3 | Pace | 104.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 19th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 147425th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 142025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–3 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.