LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints41
- James HardenAssists11
- James HardenRebounds14
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints28
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Naji MarshallRebounds8
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game133–127
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime133–127
- 2OT0.7Clippers offensive team rebound133–127
- 2OT0.7Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot133–127
- 2OT19.0Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kris Dunn133–127
- 2OT22.7Cooper Flagg lost ball turnover (Nicolas Batum steals)133–127
- 2OT27.1James Harden bad pass (Max Christie steals)133–127
- 2OT30.5James Harden defensive rebound133–127
- 2OT33.9Max Christie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot133–127
- 2OT36.8Nicolas Batum kicked ball violation133–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:10Ivica Zubac makes 2-foot hook shot (James Harden assists)LAC 114 – 112 DAL · LAC 52% → 76% +24LAC 52% → 76%+24 pts
- Q452.4D'Angelo Russell makes driving layupLAC 114 – 114 DAL · DAL 21% → 49% +28DAL 21% → 49%+28 pts
- OT1:31James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 120 – 118 DAL · LAC 40% → 74% +33LAC 40% → 74%+33 pts
- OT30.6James Harden makes 27-foot three pointer (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)LAC 123 – 121 DAL · LAC 32% → 85% +53LAC 32% → 85%+53 pts
- OT20.0Cooper Flagg makes driving layupLAC 123 – 123 DAL · DAL 10% → 49% +39DAL 10% → 49%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -170 / DAL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- LAC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 47.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -154
- DAL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.0 – 108.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −4 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +21 Elo | DAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 107.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 114.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.9 | Margin | −6.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 103.329th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 109.64th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 104.36th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 28th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 148222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301488 | Elo rating | 141225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–10 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–6 DAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- Apr 5DAL 104 @ LAC 135Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Apr 4DAL 91 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit