Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Vit KrejciPoints28
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Clippers- James HardenPoints35
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
- Q44.0Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound105–102
- Q46.2Vit Krejci blocks Nicolas Batum 's 26-foot three point shot105–102
- Q48.1Ivica Zubac defensive rebound105–102
- Q410.4Zaccharie Risacher misses free throw 2 of 2105–102
- Q410.4Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis105–102
- Q410.4Dyson Daniels enters the game for Luke Kennard105–102
- Q410.4Ivica Zubac enters the game for Kris Dunn105–102
- Q410.4Hawks offensive team rebound105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:44Zaccharie Risacher makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 92 – 86 LAC · ATL 62% → 76% +15ATL 62% → 76%+15 pts
- Q45:29James Harden makes 28-foot three point jumperATL 92 – 89 LAC · LAC 21% → 36% +15LAC 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q45:01James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerATL 92 – 92 LAC · LAC 35% → 54% +19LAC 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q44:25Vit Krejci makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 95 – 92 LAC · ATL 46% → 66% +20ATL 46% → 66%+20 pts
- Q43:33Jalen Johnson makes two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 97 – 94 LAC · ATL 54% → 69% +15ATL 54% → 69%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML ATL +155 / LAC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- LAC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 46.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -166
- ATL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 108.5 – 113.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −37 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.2 | Points scored | 109.727th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 115.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −5.323rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 117.826th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.9 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 1–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–8 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.