Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints22
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds18
Hawks- Mouhamed GueyePoints21
- Dyson DanielsAssists13
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–122
- Q420.1Asa Newell defensive rebound102–122
- Q423.0Dalton Knecht misses 15-foot step back jumpshot102–122
- Q431.7Dalton Knecht defensive rebound102–122
- Q435.4Asa Newell misses 22-foot three point shot102–122
- Q440.3Jacob Toppin defensive rebound102–122
- Q443.0Maxi Kleber misses 26-foot three point jumper102–122
- Q459.3Jacob Toppin makes dunk102–122
- Q459.3Jacob Toppin offensive rebound102–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:48Jake LaRavia makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 46 – 55 ATL · LAL 31% → 39% +8LAL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q21:08Luka Doncic makes 35-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 52 – 62 ATL · LAL 27% → 34% +8LAL 27% → 34%+8 pts
- Q240.0Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)LAL 52 – 65 ATL · ATL 66% → 74% +8ATL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q310:06Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 61 – 70 ATL · LAL 27% → 35% +8LAL 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q39:10Mouhamed Gueye makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)LAL 61 – 75 ATL · ATL 72% → 79% +7ATL 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -225 / ATL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 63.1%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- LAL -201
- ATL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 117.0 – 111.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −30 | −39 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −24 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +93 Elo | LAL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 116.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 110.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
| 5th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 30 |
| 5th of 301591 | Elo rating | 147522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−39 Elo- Jalen Johnson right quad contusion−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.