Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints55
- Nikola JokicAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Clippers- James HardenPoints23
- Bogdan BogdanovicAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–116
- Q418.4Hunter Tyson defensive rebound130–116
- Q421.4Jordan Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper130–116
- Q429.2Jalen Pickett traveling130–116
- Q442.0Bogdan Bogdanovic bad pass (Hunter Tyson steals)130–116
- Q456.9Julian Strawther makes 10-foot two point shot (Jalen Pickett assists)130–116
- Q41:05Jalen Pickett defensive rebound128–116
- Q41:07Brook Lopez misses 26-foot three point jumper128–116
- Q41:15Cam Christie defensive rebound128–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:48Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 48 – 52 LAC · DEN 43% → 50% +8DEN 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q22:14Nikola Jokic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DEN 55 – 60 LAC · DEN 38% → 46% +8DEN 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q21:18Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 58 – 65 LAC · DEN 32% → 40% +8DEN 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q245.4Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 61 – 65 LAC · DEN 40% → 48% +9DEN 40% → 48%+9 pts
- Q311:44Spencer Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 66 – 68 LAC · DEN 45% → 54% +9DEN 45% → 54%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DEN -195 / LAC +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 60.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -175
- LAC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −38 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +76 Elo | DEN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.0 | Points scored | 108.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 114.09th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+13.3 | Margin | −5.123rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 30101.2 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301635 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 8–7 LAC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- May 3LAC 101 @ DEN 120PlayoffsPicked DEN 54%Hit
- May 1DEN 105 @ LAC 111PlayoffsPicked LAC 69%Hit
- Apr 29LAC 115 @ DEN 131PlayoffsPicked LAC 54%Miss
- Apr 26DEN 101 @ LAC 99PlayoffsPicked LAC 70%Miss
- Apr 24DEN 83 @ LAC 117PlayoffsPicked LAC 67%Hit
- Apr 21LAC 105 @ DEN 102PlayoffsPicked DEN 50%Miss
- Apr 19LAC 110 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Hit
- Jan 8LAC 103 @ DEN 126Picked LAC 61%Miss