Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints25
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–117
- Q42.9shot clock turnover100–117
- Q426.9Monte Morris makes layup100–117
- Q426.9Zeke Nnaji bad pass (Monte Morris steals)98–117
- Q427.3Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound98–117
- Q430.9Cody Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper98–117
- Q436.4Ben Sheppard defensive rebound98–117
- Q439.0Cody Martin blocks Hunter Tyson 's 16-foot jumper98–117
- Q442.8Nuggets offensive team rebound98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:53Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)IND 14 – 13 DEN · DEN 69% → 75% +6DEN 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q39:07Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three pointerIND 61 – 64 DEN · IND 16% → 23% +6IND 16% → 23%+6 pts
- Q38:07Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 64 – 68 DEN · IND 14% → 20% +6IND 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q33:41Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point shot (Tony Bradley assists)IND 79 – 85 DEN · IND 10% → 16% +6IND 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q32:54Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)IND 81 – 90 DEN · DEN 84% → 90% +6DEN 84% → 90%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML IND +340 / DEN -450
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 63.0%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -360
- IND +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 121.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1617 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −110 | −98 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +92 Elo | DEN 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 125.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 112.45th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +12.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 121.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 109.26th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 9th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 11th of 301533 | Elo rating | 16172nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–3 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.