Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Draymond GreenPoints17
- Pat SpencerAssists5
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–129
- Q412.5Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2104–129
- Q412.5Warriors offensive team rebound103–129
- Q412.5Gui Santos misses free throw 1 of 2103–129
- Q412.5Hunter Tyson shooting foul103–129
- Q412.5Gui Santos offensive rebound103–129
- Q412.8Julian Strawther blocks Will Richard 's 6-foot driving layup103–129
- Q422.1Spencer Jones makes driving layup (Jalen Pickett assists)103–129
- Q430.8Jalen Pickett defensive rebound103–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 3 – 0 DEN · GS 22% → 27% +5GS 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q110:24Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)GS 3 – 3 DEN · DEN 73% → 78% +5DEN 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q29:45Quinten Post makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 31 – 32 DEN · GS 18% → 24% +5GS 18% → 24%+5 pts
- Q29:30Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer (Peyton Watson assists)GS 31 – 35 DEN · DEN 76% → 82% +5DEN 76% → 82%+5 pts
- Q28:46Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 31 – 38 DEN · DEN 82% → 86% +5DEN 82% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML GS +340 / DEN -450
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 67.9%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -360
- GS +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.5 – 120.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −25 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +130 Elo | DEN 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 124.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 113.66th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +11.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 109.25th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 10th of 301544 | Elo rating | 16062nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–6 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 23DEN 131 @ GS 137Picked GS 51%Hit
- Apr 4DEN 104 @ GS 118Picked GS 59%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 114 @ GS 105Picked GS 81%Miss
- Dec 3GS 115 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Feb 25DEN 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 130 @ GS 127Picked DEN 57%Hit
- Dec 25GS 114 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Nov 8GS 105 @ DEN 108Picked DEN 75%Hit