Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Will RichardPoints30
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists9
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds9
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints25
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Russell WestbrookRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q41.0Will Richard makes layup116–121
- Q41.4Will Richard offensive rebound114–121
- Q43.0Jonathan Kuminga misses 20-foot two point shot114–121
- Q47.4DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q47.4Quinten Post enters the game for Gary Payton II114–120
- Q47.4DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q47.4Moses Moody personal take foul114–119
- Q48.9Gary Payton II enters the game for Quinten Post114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:39Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)GS 90 – 94 SAC · GS 13% → 30% +16GS 13% → 30%+16 pts
- Q49:19DeMar DeRozan makes 9-foot two point shot (Malik Monk assists)GS 90 – 98 SAC · SAC 71% → 84% +14SAC 71% → 84%+14 pts
- Q46:45Will Richard makes 26-foot three point shot (Moses Moody assists)GS 103 – 102 SAC · GS 37% → 53% +16GS 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q45:34Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)GS 104 – 107 SAC · SAC 52% → 70% +17SAC 52% → 70%+17 pts
- Q457.0Brandin Podziemski makes 28-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 114 – 117 SAC · GS 1% → 13% +12GS 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML GS +120 / SAC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 51.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -128
- GS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.0 – 114.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −86 | −79 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +12 Elo | SAC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 116.319th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 121.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 15471st of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 147921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–4 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 13SAC 104 @ GS 130Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 21GS 132 @ SAC 108Picked GS 53%Hit
- Jan 22GS 117 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Jan 5SAC 129 @ GS 99Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 25SAC 134 @ GS 133Picked SAC 57%Hit
- Nov 28GS 123 @ SAC 124Picked SAC 64%Hit
- Nov 1SAC 101 @ GS 102Picked GS 54%Hit
- Oct 27GS 122 @ SAC 114Picked SAC 67%Miss