Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints19
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–108
- Q412.6Nikola Jokic defensive rebound122–108
- Q416.4DeMar DeRozan misses 23-foot three point jumper122–108
- Q424.4Christian Braun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)122–108
- Q440.4Drew Eubanks makes alley oop layup (Russell Westbrook assists)119–108
- Q445.9Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)119–106
- Q41:02Drew Eubanks turnover116–106
- Q41:02Drew Eubanks offensive foul116–106
- Q41:04Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three pointer116–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:33DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)DEN 45 – 47 SAC · SAC 27% → 34% +7SAC 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q248.5Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 57 – 56 SAC · SAC 22% → 28% +7SAC 22% → 28%+7 pts
- Q35:03Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 76 – 72 SAC · DEN 69% → 78% +9DEN 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q357.0Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 83 – 80 SAC · SAC 17% → 25% +9SAC 17% → 25%+9 pts
- Q411:47DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)DEN 85 – 84 SAC · SAC 26% → 33% +7SAC 26% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -380 / SAC +290
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 66.5%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -309
- SAC +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 126.5 – 118.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −23 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +119 Elo | DEN 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.2 | Points scored | 115.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 123.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+13.2 | Margin | −8.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.5 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 118.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.35th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15711st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301627 | Elo rating | 146323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–3 SAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 3SAC 124 @ DEN 130Picked DEN 83%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 124 @ SAC 116Picked DEN 63%Hit
- Mar 5SAC 110 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Jan 23SAC 123 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Dec 16DEN 130 @ SAC 129Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Feb 28SAC 96 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 65%Hit
- Feb 14SAC 102 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 60%Miss
- Feb 9DEN 106 @ SAC 135Picked SAC 53%Hit