Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints26
- Nique CliffordAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–117
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)144–117
- Q40.0Nique Clifford makes layup (Keon Ellis assists)144–117
- Q40.8Joan Beringer makes 2-foot dunk (Rob Dillingham assists)144–115
- Q49.7Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three point shot (Nique Clifford assists)142–115
- Q414.3Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound142–112
- Q418.5Johnny Juzang misses 28-foot three point jumper142–112
- Q424.4Leonard Miller offensive rebound142–112
- Q430.6Bones Hyland misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot142–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIN 2 – 6 SAC · SAC 39% → 45% +6SAC 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q18:43Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 9 – 9 SAC · MIN 57% → 63% +6MIN 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q211:33Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 34 – 27 SAC · MIN 71% → 77% +6MIN 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q25:05Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)MIN 49 – 43 SAC · SAC 19% → 25% +6SAC 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q24:24Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointerMIN 52 – 45 SAC · MIN 71% → 77% +7MIN 71% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -195 / SAC +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- SAC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 121.0 – 116.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −18 | MIN: Usual rotation · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +96 Elo | MIN 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 115.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 121.728th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −6.624th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.4 | Pace | 103.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15631st of 30 |
| 6th of 301588 | Elo rating | 147721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.