Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Isaiah HartensteinPoints33
- Ajay MitchellAssists10
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds19
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints24
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–101
- Q40.3Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound132–101
- Q41.1Devin Carter misses layup132–101
- Q46.3Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 2132–101
- Q46.3Thunder offensive team rebound131–101
- Q46.3Isaiah Joe misses free throw 1 of 2131–101
- Q46.3Keon Ellis personal foul131–101
- Q48.4Isaiah Joe defensive rebound131–101
- Q410.9Devin Carter misses 26-foot three point jumper131–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:09Malik Monk makes 30-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)OKC 25 – 29 SAC · SAC 22% → 28% +6SAC 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q153.4Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 28 – 29 SAC · OKC 72% → 78% +6OKC 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q133.7DeMar DeRozan makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)OKC 28 – 32 SAC · SAC 22% → 28% +6SAC 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q27:25Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)OKC 44 – 43 SAC · SAC 15% → 20% +5SAC 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q24:57Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)OKC 53 – 51 SAC · SAC 14% → 19% +5SAC 14% → 19%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML OKC -700 / SAC +450
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 76.8%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -481
- SAC +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 123.0 – 111.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1679 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −53 | OKC: Usual rotation · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +208 Elo | OKC 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30122.2 | Points scored | 116.918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.6 | Margin | −3.522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.0 | Pace | 103.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 30 |
| 29th of 301461 | Opponent Elo | 15462nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301679 | Elo rating | 148620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–2 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 28SAC 101 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Mar 25OKC 121 @ SAC 105Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Feb 1SAC 110 @ OKC 144Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 25OKC 130 @ SAC 109Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Apr 9SAC 105 @ OKC 112Picked OKC 65%Hit
- Feb 11SAC 113 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Dec 14OKC 123 @ SAC 128Picked OKC 54%Miss
- Nov 10OKC 98 @ SAC 105Picked OKC 58%Miss