Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints18
- Kyle AndersonAssists4
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Julius RandleAssists12
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–137
- Q420.4Cody Williams makes 10-foot two point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)97–137
- Q438.0Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 295–137
- Q438.0Bones Hyland makes free throw 1 of 295–136
- Q438.0Elijah Harkless personal foul95–135
- Q453.4Joan Beringer defensive rebound95–135
- Q454.8Leonard Miller lost ball turnover95–135
- Q454.8Elijah Harkless misses free throw 2 of 295–135
- Q454.8Elijah Harkless makes free throw 1 of 295–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:52Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot driving dunkUTAH 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 84% → 86% +2MIN 84% → 86%+2 pts
- Q111:27Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 0 – 5 MIN · MIN 86% → 89% +3MIN 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q110:51Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shot (Julius Randle assists)UTAH 2 – 7 MIN · MIN 87% → 89% +2MIN 87% → 89%+2 pts
- Q110:28Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)UTAH 2 – 10 MIN · MIN 89% → 92% +3MIN 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q110:00Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)UTAH 2 – 13 MIN · MIN 92% → 94% +2MIN 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML UTAH +475 / MIN -750
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 78.2%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -507
- UTAH +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.5 – 123.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −3 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +222 Elo | MIN 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 116.520th of 30 |
| 19th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 118.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | −1.820th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 115.812th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 151212th of 30 |
| 26th of 301380 | Elo rating | 15787th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 13UTAH 105 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 95%Hit
- Mar 16UTAH 102 @ MIN 128Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Feb 28MIN 116 @ UTAH 117Picked MIN 62%Miss
- Jan 30MIN 138 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 68%Hit
- Mar 18MIN 114 @ UTAH 104Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Mar 16MIN 119 @ UTAH 100Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 30UTAH 90 @ MIN 101Picked MIN 75%Hit
- Nov 4UTAH 95 @ MIN 123Picked MIN 60%Hit