Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints32
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–137
- Q419.9Rob Dillingham out of bounds bad pass turnover114–137
- Q427.4Guerschon Yabusele makes driving layup (Tyler Kolek assists)114–137
- Q438.0Leonard Miller makes 2-foot two point shot (Rob Dillingham assists)114–135
- Q449.0Timberwolves defensive team rebound112–135
- Q450.5Tyler Kolek misses 25-foot three point shot112–135
- Q453.8Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound112–135
- Q456.0Leonard Miller misses two point shot112–135
- Q41:07Ariel Hukporti makes two point shot112–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:23Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIN 54 – 52 NY · NY 42% → 50% +9NY 42% → 50%+9 pts
- Q310:39Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)MIN 60 – 57 NY · NY 38% → 46% +9NY 38% → 46%+9 pts
- Q39:51Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 63 – 59 NY · MIN 48% → 57% +9MIN 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q38:06Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MIN 65 – 66 NY · NY 49% → 58% +10NY 49% → 58%+10 pts
- Q36:47OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 67 – 71 NY · NY 58% → 68% +9NY 58% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML MIN +130 / NY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NY: Elo 49.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −15 | MIN: Usual rotation · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +4 Elo | MIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 116.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 113.66th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 115.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15236th of 30 |
| 4th of 301596 | Elo rating | 15727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.