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Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalKFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North

Away

Mavericks

4-11

96–120

at

Home

Timberwolves

9-5

DAL 15%MIN 85%

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Target Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored DAL favored115 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks
Timberwolves

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game96–120
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–120
  • Q421.4Joan Beringer defensive rebound96–120
  • Q424.1D'Angelo Russell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot96–120
  • Q430.4Johnny Juzang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Leonard Miller assists)96–120
  • Q444.4Miles Kelly makes 7-foot two point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)96–117
  • Q445.9Mavericks offensive team rebound94–117
  • Q446.1Joan Beringer blocks Jaden Hardy 's 3-foot driving layup94–117
  • Q455.9Leonard Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover94–117
  • Q41:06Leonard Miller defensive rebound94–117

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q111:16Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 83% → 86% +4
  2. Q19:34P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 7 – 9 MIN · DAL 10% → 13% +3
  3. Q18:21Brandon Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 12 – 9 MIN · DAL 16% → 20% +4
  4. Q16:49Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)DAL 13 – 17 MIN · MIN 85% → 89% +3
  5. Q12:45Mike Conley makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 19 – 27 MIN · MIN 89% → 92% +3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Timberwolves 85%

StrongHit
DAL 15%MIN 85%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
MIN -13.5
ML DAL +550 / MIN -900
Pre-line forecast
MIN 87%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -12
MIN 87%
Ratings vs. market
+1.8 pts
MIN: Elo 87.2%, market 85.4%
Fair odds
MIN -585
DAL +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 109.5 – 123.0 MIN
Posted spread, posted total 232.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALMINWhy
Team rating14131597Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—DAL on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−52+21DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIN +333 EloMIN 87.2%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 86.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 86.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 85.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatMIN
27th of 30111.3Points scored120.79th of 30
18th of 30117.0Points allowed115.814th of 30
24th of 30−5.7Margin+4.87th of 30
29th of 30104.4Offense rating117.64th of 30
5th of 30109.8Defense rating112.917th of 30
6th of 30104.2Pace102.713th of 30
21st of 303–7Last 106–410th of 30
17th of 301–2Road vs home3–320th of 30
26th of 301476Opponent Elo148622nd of 30
25th of 301413Elo rating15975th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

−52 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

+21 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksTimberwolves
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALMIN
Against the spread6–85–8
Last 104–65–5
Favorite1–45–5
Underdog5–40–3
Overs–unders6–88–5
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 6–6 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.