Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Jamal MurrayAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–112
- Q410.1Aaron Gordon bad pass (Jaden McDaniels steals)121–108
- Q432.5Anthony Edwards makes driving layup123–112
- Q438.3Peyton Watson makes 3-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)123–110
- Q443.5Julius Randle makes driving layup121–110
- Q450.5Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2121–108
- Q450.5Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2120–108
- Q450.5Julius Randle personal foul119–108
- Q41:03Jaden McDaniels makes 2-foot layup (Julius Randle assists)119–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:21Julius Randle makes 2-foot dunkDEN 73 – 75 MIN · MIN 42% → 56% +14MIN 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q34:08Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Spencer Jones assists)DEN 78 – 75 MIN · DEN 44% → 62% +18DEN 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q31.3Julius Randle makes 2-foot dunkDEN 85 – 84 MIN · MIN 22% → 45% +22MIN 22% → 45%+22 pts
- Q410:28Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 92 – 90 MIN · DEN 47% → 60% +13DEN 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q49:09Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 95 – 92 MIN · DEN 51% → 65% +14DEN 51% → 65%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- DEN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 44.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 118.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −32 | +22 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +40 Elo | MIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30124.5 | Points scored | 121.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 115.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+13.4 | Margin | +6.25th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Offense rating | 118.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.713th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 146727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301644 | Elo rating | 16104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–10 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.
- Oct 27DEN 127 @ MIN 114Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Apr 1MIN 140 @ DEN 139Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Mar 12MIN 115 @ DEN 95Picked DEN 53%Miss
- Jan 25DEN 104 @ MIN 133Picked DEN 59%Miss
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit
- May 14MIN 97 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit