Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–113
- Q43.8Kyle Filipowski makes 4-foot driving dunk (Keyonte George assists)120–113
- Q49.9Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2120–111
- Q49.9Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2119–111
- Q49.9Kyle Filipowski personal take foul118–111
- Q410.9Julius Randle defensive rebound118–111
- Q414.7Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot118–111
- Q417.9Anthony Edwards bad pass (Ace Bailey steals)118–111
- Q431.3Ace Bailey makes dunk (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)118–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:38Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)MIN 29 – 33 UTAH · UTAH 34% → 40% +7UTAH 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:21Svi Mykhailiuk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)MIN 31 – 36 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 44% +7UTAH 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q26:17Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Collier assists)MIN 33 – 39 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 48% +8UTAH 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q21:01Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point shot (Ace Bailey assists)MIN 47 – 51 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 45% +8UTAH 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q310:07Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 60 – 55 UTAH · MIN 71% → 78% +7MIN 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML MIN -290 / UTAH +240
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.1%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -253
- UTAH +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 121.5 – 114.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +10 | −3 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +156 Elo | MIN 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 112.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −8.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150415th of 30 |
| 4th of 301602 | Elo rating | 137026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–1 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 7UTAH 97 @ MIN 137Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Apr 13UTAH 105 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 95%Hit
- Mar 16UTAH 102 @ MIN 128Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Feb 28MIN 116 @ UTAH 117Picked MIN 62%Miss
- Jan 30MIN 138 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 68%Hit
- Mar 18MIN 114 @ UTAH 104Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Mar 16MIN 119 @ UTAH 100Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 30UTAH 90 @ MIN 101Picked MIN 75%Hit