Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints34
- Russell WestbrookAssists14
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Naz ReidRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–124
- Q40.2Russell Westbrook defensive rebound110–124
- Q40.4Leonard Miller misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot110–124
- Q412.4Leonard Miller defensive rebound110–124
- Q415.8Dennis Schroder misses 25-foot three point jumper110–124
- Q421.4Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2110–124
- Q421.4Rob Dillingham enters the game for Jaylen Clark110–123
- Q421.4Bones Hyland enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo110–123
- Q421.4Timberwolves offensive team rebound110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:19Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 72 – 68 MIN · SAC 29% → 38% +8SAC 29% → 38%+8 pts
- Q37:40Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 82 – 75 MIN · SAC 39% → 49% +10SAC 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q35:14Anthony Edwards makes 29-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)SAC 84 – 84 MIN · MIN 62% → 71% +9MIN 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q411:11Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 94 – 94 MIN · SAC 22% → 32% +11SAC 22% → 32%+11 pts
- Q49:28Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point shot (Mike Conley assists)SAC 94 – 99 MIN · MIN 74% → 84% +10MIN 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML SAC +450 / MIN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 83.6%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -481
- SAC +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.5 – 126.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +20 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +283 Elo | MIN 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 81.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Points scored | 121.27th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.5 | Points allowed | 115.714th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +5.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.8 | Pace | 102.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 1st of 301577 | Opponent Elo | 147124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301440 | Elo rating | 16064th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Nov 9MIN 144 @ SAC 117Picked MIN 64%Hit
- Feb 3SAC 116 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Nov 27SAC 115 @ MIN 104Picked MIN 57%Miss
- Nov 15MIN 130 @ SAC 126Picked MIN 53%Hit
- Oct 24MIN 117 @ SAC 115Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Mar 1SAC 124 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 76%Miss
- Dec 23MIN 110 @ SAC 98Picked MIN 53%Hit
- Nov 24SAC 124 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 64%Miss