Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints24
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Kings- Keon EllisPoints20
- Nique CliffordAssists4
- Devin CarterRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–100
- Q43.9Doug McDermott bad pass (Keaton Wallace steals)133–100
- Q47.2shot clock turnover133–100
- Q431.2Devin Carter makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nique Clifford assists)133–100
- Q447.1Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)133–97
- Q450.3Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound130–97
- Q453.4Nique Clifford misses 14-foot two point shot130–97
- Q41:14Keaton Wallace turnover130–97
- Q41:14Keaton Wallace offensive foul130–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 3 – 0 SAC · ATL 61% → 67% +6ATL 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q19:07Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 27-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 10 – 6 SAC · ATL 63% → 69% +6ATL 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q211:34Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)ATL 40 – 34 SAC · ATL 67% → 73% +6ATL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q210:16Devin Carter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)ATL 40 – 37 SAC · SAC 27% → 33% +6SAC 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q27:12Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 45 – 37 SAC · ATL 71% → 77% +6ATL 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -175 / SAC +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -159
- SAC +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.0 – 112.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −47 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +113 Elo | ATL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 123.728th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −9.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 110.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 119.527th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15791st of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 145523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.