Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints24
- Jordan HawkinsAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–109
- Q41.1Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup120–109
- Q46.2shot clock turnover120–107
- Q430.2Bryce McGowens personal foul120–107
- Q430.2Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound120–107
- Q430.9Branden Carlson blocks Yves Missi 's 5-foot finger roll layup120–107
- Q438.9Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound120–107
- Q440.9Branden Carlson misses dunk120–107
- Q441.7Branden Carlson offensive rebound120–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Jeremiah Fears makes 16-foot driving floating jump shotOKC 0 – 2 NO · NO 7% → 9% +2NO 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q110:23Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 3 – 2 NO · OKC 91% → 94% +2OKC 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q18:19Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 10 – 6 NO · OKC 93% → 95% +2OKC 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q311:40Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 66 – 56 NO · OKC 94% → 96% +2OKC 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q39:58Cason Wallace makes driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 68 – 58 NO · OKC 95% → 96% +1OKC 95% → 96%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -18.5
- ML OKC -4000 / NO +1300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14
- OKC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 90.6%, market 93.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1366
- NO +1366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.0 – 102.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1717 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | −38 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +394 Elo | OKC 90.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 92.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 91.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 93.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.6 | Points scored | 108.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 121.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.4 | Margin | −13.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 107.526th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 120.728th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–1 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 30 |
| 30th of 301455 | Opponent Elo | 15254th of 30 |
| 1st of 301717 | Elo rating | 134228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 11–1 NO in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Nov 2NO 106 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Apr 13OKC 115 @ NO 100Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Feb 10NO 101 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 7OKC 119 @ NO 109Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit
- Apr 24NO 92 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit