Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints15
- KJ SimpsonAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–96
- Q420.8Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound109–96
- Q423.0KJ Simpson misses 14-foot pullup jump shot109–96
- Q433.2Ajay Mitchell makes driving layup109–96
- Q449.6KJ Simpson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot107–96
- Q41:09Branden Carlson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)107–94
- Q41:15Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound104–94
- Q41:16Ajay Mitchell misses layup104–94
- Q41:35Antonio Reeves makes 23-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)104–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:47Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 39 – 42 CHA · OKC 75% → 81% +6OKC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q24:18Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 42 – 44 CHA · OKC 77% → 83% +6OKC 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q23:05Collin Sexton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)OKC 46 – 49 CHA · CHA 15% → 20% +5CHA 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q257.8Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)OKC 50 – 52 CHA · CHA 14% → 19% +5CHA 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q247.3Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 53 – 52 CHA · OKC 81% → 86% +5OKC 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML OKC -2500 / CHA +1100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.5%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1154
- CHA +1154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.0 – 103.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | +39 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +322 Elo | OKC 86.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.5 | Points scored | 118.912th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 121.424th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.5 | Margin | −2.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.6 | Defense rating | 117.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 30 |
| 29th of 301465 | Opponent Elo | 146230th of 30 |
| 1st of 301715 | Elo rating | 133828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.