Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds6
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints34
- Kon KnueppelAssists9
- Kon KnueppelRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–111
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound121–111
- Q40.0Liam McNeeley misses 29-foot three point jumper121–111
- Q43.0Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2121–111
- Q43.0Dalton Knecht enters the game for Austin Reaves120–111
- Q43.0Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2120–111
- Q43.0Ryan Kalkbrenner personal foul119–111
- Q43.2Sion James bad pass (Marcus Smart steals)119–111
- Q47.7Liam McNeeley enters the game for Moussa Diabate119–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:40Sion James makes 26-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)LAL 46 – 53 CHA · CHA 40% → 48% +8CHA 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q25:12Marcus Smart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 49 – 53 CHA · LAL 51% → 59% +8LAL 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q24:35Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 52 – 53 CHA · LAL 59% → 67% +8LAL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q23:14Tre Mann makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kon Knueppel assists)LAL 54 – 58 CHA · CHA 34% → 42% +8CHA 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q226.0Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointer (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 63 – 63 CHA · LAL 60% → 68% +8LAL 60% → 68%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML LAL -340 / CHA +270
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 72.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -286
- CHA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 119.5 – 111.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +36 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +169 Elo | LAL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 121.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 114.614th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.99th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 143630th of 30 |
| 8th of 301569 | Elo rating | 133728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.