Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints19
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–121
- Q420.0Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 292–121
- Q420.0Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 291–121
- Q420.0Brooks Barnhizer shooting foul90–121
- Q439.3Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 290–121
- Q439.3Isaiah Joe makes free throw 1 of 290–120
- Q439.3Jarred Vanderbilt shooting foul90–119
- Q41:00Dalton Knecht makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Bronny James assists)90–119
- Q41:14Ousmane Dieng makes 21-foot step back jumpshot88–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:45Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 7 – 2 OKC · LAL 31% → 37% +6LAL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q19:33Cason Wallace makes two point shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)LAL 7 – 4 OKC · OKC 63% → 67% +4OKC 63% → 67%+4 pts
- Q19:00Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 10 – 6 OKC · LAL 29% → 35% +6LAL 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q18:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 10 – 9 OKC · OKC 65% → 71% +6OKC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q14:11Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAL 12 – 22 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML LAL +260 / OKC -320
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 65.0%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -274
- LAL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.5 – 119.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1701 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +1 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +107 Elo | OKC 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 122.75th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 108.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +14.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 117.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 103.61st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 146129th of 30 |
| 7th of 301574 | Elo rating | 17011st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–2 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–3 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.