Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points17
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Cedric CowardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–100
- Q421.8GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2114–100
- Q421.8PJ Hall enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.114–99
- Q421.8Grizzlies offensive team rebound114–99
- Q421.8GG Jackson misses free throw 1 of 2114–99
- Q421.8Brooks Barnhizer shooting foul114–99
- Q429.0GG Jackson defensive rebound114–99
- Q432.2Cason Wallace misses 24-foot three point jumper114–99
- Q454.8Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound114–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:46Ja Morant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)OKC 65 – 70 MEM · MEM 37% → 47% +10MEM 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q34:29Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)OKC 69 – 73 MEM · MEM 35% → 45% +10MEM 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q33:42Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)OKC 69 – 76 MEM · MEM 46% → 57% +11MEM 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q32:30Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three pointerOKC 76 – 76 MEM · OKC 57% → 67% +11OKC 57% → 67%+11 pts
- Q49:26Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (John Konchar assists)OKC 87 – 86 MEM · MEM 20% → 32% +11MEM 20% → 32%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML OKC -500 / MEM +360
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 72.4%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -383
- MEM +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.0 – 110.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1687 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −32 | OKC: Usual rotation · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +168 Elo | OKC 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30123.2 | Points scored | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 119.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.5 | Margin | −4.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Defense rating | 114.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.5 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 3–423rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301462 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 1st of 301687 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | — | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 11–0 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 11.
- Apr 26OKC 117 @ MEM 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 89%Hit
- Apr 24OKC 114 @ MEM 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 8OKC 125 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ OKC 130Picked OKC 72%Hit