Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints13
- Jonathan KumingaAssists4
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds6
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists11
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–126
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound102–126
- Q40.0Pat Spencer misses 14-foot two point shot102–126
- Q418.0Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 2 of 2102–126
- Q418.0Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 1 of 2102–125
- Q418.0Gui Santos shooting foul102–124
- Q429.8Jaylin Williams defensive rebound102–124
- Q432.8Gui Santos misses 27-foot three point jumper102–124
- Q438.7Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2102–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Ajay Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)GS 2 – 3 OKC · OKC 70% → 76% +5OKC 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q18:38Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 9 – 13 OKC · OKC 75% → 80% +5OKC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q17:19Quinten Post makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 14 – 15 OKC · GS 20% → 25% +5GS 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q15:37Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)GS 14 – 18 OKC · OKC 74% → 80% +5OKC 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q12:27Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)GS 23 – 26 OKC · OKC 72% → 77% +6OKC 72% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML GS +270 / OKC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -286
- GS +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.0 – 117.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1694 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +5 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +210 Elo | OKC 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 122.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 108.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +13.51st of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 117.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 104.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.726th of 30 |
| 13th of 285–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 28 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 145829th of 30 |
| 10th of 301541 | Elo rating | 16941st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–4 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.