Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints14
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds12
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints21
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–114
- Q417.5Gui Santos defensive rebound83–114
- Q420.7Taelon Peter misses 23-foot three point jumper83–114
- Q431.2Cody Martin defensive rebound83–114
- Q434.1Buddy Hield misses 22-foot three point jumper83–114
- Q445.4RayJ Dennis makes driving layup83–114
- Q451.2Buddy Hield makes 2-foot layup (Pat Spencer assists)81–114
- Q41:08shot clock turnover81–112
- Q41:08Pacers offensive team rebound81–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:24Ben Sheppard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 50 – 51 GS · IND 18% → 25% +7IND 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q38:25Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 53 – 53 GS · IND 20% → 28% +7IND 20% → 28%+7 pts
- Q35:56Jay Huff makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 58 – 59 GS · IND 18% → 26% +8IND 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q34:05Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)IND 62 – 64 GS · GS 67% → 76% +9GS 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q31:51Al Horford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)IND 65 – 70 GS · GS 75% → 84% +8GS 75% → 84%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -13.5
- ML IND +425 / GS -650
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7.5
- GS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- GS: Elo 76.7%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -455
- IND +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 104.0 – 117.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −171 | −50 | IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −55, Aaron Nesmith −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +207 Elo | GS 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 116.117th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 116.714th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.4 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 5th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 15353rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301522 | Elo rating | 153211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−171 Elo- Pascal Siakam rest−55 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith right forearm injury−11 Elo
Warriors
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–1 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.