Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints32
- LaMelo BallAssists10
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints29
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists18
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–147
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–147
- OT0.1Hornets offensive team rebound134–147
- OT0.5Sion James misses heave jump shot134–147
- OT2.3Gary Harris lost ball turnover (Kon Knueppel steals)134–147
- OT4.7Kon Knueppel lost ball turnover (Gary Harris steals)134–147
- OT8.9AJ Green makes free throw 3 of 3134–147
- OT8.9AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 3134–146
- OT8.9AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 3134–145
- OT8.9Mason Plumlee enters the game for Moussa Diabate134–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:27Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 122 – 121 MIL · CHA 27% → 53% +26CHA 27% → 53%+26 pts
- Q41:34Kon Knueppel makes 28-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 125 – 125 MIL · CHA 16% → 45% +29CHA 16% → 45%+29 pts
- Q41:18Ryan Rollins makes 17-foot pullup jump shotCHA 125 – 127 MIL · MIL 55% → 77% +23MIL 55% → 77%+23 pts
- Q427.0Kyle Kuzma makes 3-foot two point shot (Myles Turner assists)CHA 126 – 129 MIL · MIL 73% → 95% +23MIL 73% → 95%+23 pts
- Q421.1Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot three point jumperCHA 129 – 129 MIL · CHA 3% → 48% +45CHA 3% → 48%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -9.5
- ML CHA +300 / MIL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -320
- CHA +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.5 – 124.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | +31 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +172 Elo | MIL 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 118.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 117.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.315th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 30 |
| 30th of 301454 | Opponent Elo | 147923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301343 | Elo rating | 153412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 12MIL 100 @ CHA 111Picked MIL 57%Miss
- Feb 5MIL 112 @ CHA 102Picked MIL 81%Hit
- Nov 23CHA 119 @ MIL 125Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Nov 16MIL 114 @ CHA 115Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Feb 29MIL 111 @ CHA 99Picked MIL 64%Hit
- Feb 27CHA 85 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Feb 9CHA 84 @ MIL 120Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Nov 17MIL 130 @ CHA 99Picked MIL 56%Hit