Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds16
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints35
- Saddiq BeyAssists7
- Derik QueenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–104
- Q40.0Jeremiah Fears makes two point shot118–104
- Q41.3Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound118–102
- Q43.6Luka Doncic misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot118–102
- Q411.4Luka Doncic offensive rebound118–102
- Q412.6Derik Queen blocks Luka Doncic 's 4-foot layup118–102
- Q428.7Derik Queen makes driving layup118–102
- Q432.1Lakers delay of game violation118–100
- Q432.8shot clock turnover118–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)LAL 3 – 0 NO · LAL 79% → 83% +4LAL 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:16Marcus Smart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 8 – 4 NO · LAL 80% → 84% +4LAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:58Jeremiah Fears makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 8 – 7 NO · NO 16% → 20% +4NO 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q28:08Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 40 – 35 NO · LAL 79% → 84% +5LAL 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q48:23Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three pointer (Herbert Jones assists)LAL 96 – 88 NO · NO 4% → 9% +5NO 4% → 9%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -500 / NO +360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7
- LAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 75.8%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -383
- NO +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.5 – 109.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −23 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +198 Elo | LAL 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 108.828th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 121.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −12.827th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 121.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 151811th of 30 |
| 8th of 301560 | Elo rating | 135427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–1 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.