Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints32
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints20
- Derik QueenAssists6
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–106
- Q40.6Will Richard offensive rebound124–106
- Q43.2Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point jumper124–106
- Q411.8Yves Missi makes two point shot124–106
- Q414.3Yves Missi offensive rebound124–104
- Q416.9Jeremiah Fears misses free throw 2 of 2124–104
- Q416.9Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2124–104
- Q416.9Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul124–103
- Q428.9Trayce Jackson-Davis makes dunk124–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:04Jimmy Butler III makes 1-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 2 – 4 NO · GS 74% → 77% +3GS 74% → 77%+3 pts
- Q19:53Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 5 – 6 NO · GS 73% → 78% +5GS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q19:25Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 8 – 6 NO · GS 78% → 82% +4GS 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q17:12Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 17 – 9 NO · GS 86% → 89% +3GS 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q26:34Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 50 – 39 NO · GS 89% → 92% +3GS 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -11.5
- ML GS -550 / NO +380
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7
- GS 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- GS: Elo 75.4%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -406
- NO +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 119.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1349 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −28 | GS: Usual rotation · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −57 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +194 Elo | GS 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points scored | 108.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 121.324th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −12.928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 108.026th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 120.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.628th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 16th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 15236th of 30 |
| 10th of 301550 | Elo rating | 134927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−28 Elo- Zion Williamson strained left hamstring−57 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–2 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.