Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints46
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds6
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints31
- Victor WembanyamaAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–120
- Q40.2Stephon Castle makes 9-foot jump bank shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)123–120
- Q42.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Stephen Curry125–118
- Q42.1Moses Moody makes free throw 2 of 2123–118
- Q42.1Moses Moody makes free throw 1 of 2122–118
- Q42.1Julian Champagnie personal foul121–118
- Q42.7Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot dunk121–118
- Q42.7Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound121–116
- Q45.4Al Horford enters the game for Gary Payton II123–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:59Jimmy Butler III makes 27-foot three pointerGS 95 – 91 SA · GS 50% → 63% +13GS 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q49:11Will Richard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 98 – 93 SA · GS 55% → 69% +14GS 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q48:08Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)GS 99 – 96 SA · SA 26% → 39% +14SA 26% → 39%+14 pts
- Q47:53Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 102 – 96 SA · GS 61% → 75% +14GS 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q47:40Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)GS 102 – 99 SA · SA 25% → 39% +14SA 25% → 39%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML GS +140 / SA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.1 pts
- SA: Elo 69.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -149
- GS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.5 – 118.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | +85 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +139 Elo | SA 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 119.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 111.34th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +8.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 117.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 109.25th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.926th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Opponent Elo | 146228th of 30 |
| 11th of 301534 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–3 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.