San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints38
- Stephon CastleAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Bulls- Kevin HuerterPoints23
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–117
- Q43.1Spurs Full timeout121–117
- Q43.1Ayo Dosunmu makes 1-foot two point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)121–117
- Q46.4Patrick Williams enters the game for Jalen Smith121–115
- Q46.4Bulls Full timeout121–115
- Q46.4Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q46.4Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2120–115
- Q46.4Kevin Huerter personal foul119–115
- Q47.9Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:45Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)SA 101 – 107 CHI · CHI 63% → 78% +15CHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q42:20Tre Jones makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)SA 107 – 111 CHI · CHI 65% → 81% +15CHI 65% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:43Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SA 109 – 114 CHI · CHI 68% → 90% +22CHI 68% → 90%+22 pts
- Q41:00Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 114 – 114 CHI · SA 15% → 52% +37SA 15% → 52%+37 pts
- Q427.9Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three pointerSA 117 – 114 CHI · SA 51% → 95% +43SA 51% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- SA: Elo 53.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 120.5 – 115.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +81 | −12 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +26 Elo | SA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 119.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 118.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.4 | Margin | +1.316th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 115.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.510th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 29th of 301460 | Opponent Elo | 15285th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 153113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–5 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.