Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Isaac OkoroPoints19
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Sam MerrillAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–128
- Q40.0Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound122–128
- Q40.0Tre Jones misses 25-foot three point shot122–128
- Q44.3Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2122–128
- Q44.3Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2122–127
- Q44.3Tre Jones personal foul122–126
- Q44.3Evan Mobley defensive rebound122–126
- Q47.0Kevin Huerter misses 26-foot three point jumper122–126
- Q412.3De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2122–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:14Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 83 – 83 CLE · CLE 48% → 66% +17CLE 48% → 66%+17 pts
- Q44:23Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)CHI 114 – 111 CLE · CLE 20% → 38% +17CLE 20% → 38%+17 pts
- Q41:38Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 122 – 119 CLE · CLE 6% → 24% +18CLE 6% → 24%+18 pts
- Q41:14Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupCHI 122 – 121 CLE · CLE 19% → 42% +22CLE 19% → 42%+22 pts
- Q433.4Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup (Jaylon Tyson assists)CHI 122 – 123 CLE · CLE 34% → 71% +37CLE 34% → 71%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML CHI +290 / CLE -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -309
- CHI +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | +4 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +85 Elo | CLE 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 119.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +5.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 114.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 110.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 30103.5 | Pace | 104.35th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
| 7th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 147623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15993rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–7 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 8CHI 113 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Mar 4CLE 139 @ CHI 117Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 15CHI 126 @ CLE 144Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Nov 11CLE 119 @ CHI 113Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ CHI 132Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Feb 14CHI 105 @ CLE 108Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Jan 15CHI 91 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Dec 23CLE 109 @ CHI 95Picked CHI 66%Miss