Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints49
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–108
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound109–108
- Q40.0De'Aaron Fox misses 18-foot pullup jump shot109–108
- Q46.4Moses Moody enters the game for Brandin Podziemski109–108
- Q46.4Harrison Barnes enters the game for Luke Kornet109–108
- Q46.4Spurs Full timeout109–108
- Q46.4Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2109–108
- Q46.4Gary Payton II enters the game for Moses Moody108–108
- Q46.4Luke Kornet enters the game for Julian Champagnie108–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:37Gary Payton II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 101 – 100 SA · GS 34% → 56% +22GS 34% → 56%+22 pts
- Q41:06Victor Wembanyama makes tip shotGS 105 – 108 SA · SA 64% → 85% +21SA 64% → 85%+21 pts
- Q456.6Jimmy Butler III makes layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 107 – 108 SA · GS 13% → 35% +22GS 13% → 35%+22 pts
- Q46.4Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2GS 108 – 108 SA · GS 13% → 50% +36GS 13% → 50%+36 pts
- Q46.4Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2GS 109 – 108 SA · GS 50% → 86% +37GS 50% → 86%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML GS +120 / SA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2.5
- SA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- SA: Elo 60.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -128
- GS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 118.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +86 | GS: Usual rotation · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +72 Elo | SA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.5 | Points scored | 119.411th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 112.55th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +6.85th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 116.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 109.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 5–17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301536 | Opponent Elo | 147024th of 30 |
| 10th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–3 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.