New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Mavericks- D'Angelo RussellPoints23
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–111
- Q40.7Brandon Williams turnover113–111
- Q40.7Brandon Williams offensive foul113–111
- Q43.8Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2113–111
- Q43.8Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns112–111
- Q43.8Dereck Lively II enters the game for Naji Marshall112–111
- Q43.8Knicks offensive team rebound112–111
- Q43.8Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2112–111
- Q43.8Max Christie personal take foul112–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:57Miles McBride makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 96 – 98 DAL · NY 36% → 51% +15NY 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q45:57Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 101 – 102 DAL · NY 36% → 54% +17NY 36% → 54%+17 pts
- Q43:45Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 106 – 106 DAL · NY 36% → 58% +22NY 36% → 58%+22 pts
- Q41:03Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 109 – 108 DAL · NY 27% → 68% +40NY 27% → 68%+40 pts
- Q431.4Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 112 – 109 DAL · NY 53% → 94% +41NY 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -380 / DAL +290
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NY: Elo 68.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -309
- DAL +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.0 – 112.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +8 | NY: Usual rotation · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +133 Elo | NY 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 69.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.4 | Points scored | 110.327th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 117.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.2 | Margin | −6.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 103.330th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 109.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.5 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148720th of 30 |
| 8th of 301586 | Elo rating | 140925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.