Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints19
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–133
- Q46.8shot clock turnover120–133
- Q429.3OG Anunoby defensive rebound120–133
- Q432.2Cam Spencer misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot120–133
- Q437.2Landry Shamet makes free throw 2 of 2120–133
- Q437.2Vince Williams Jr. enters the game for Ja Morant120–132
- Q437.2Landry Shamet makes free throw 1 of 2120–132
- Q437.2Ja Morant personal foul120–131
- Q447.5Santi Aldama makes alley oop dunk shot (Cam Spencer assists)120–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 3 – 0 NY · MEM 21% → 26% +5MEM 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q19:39Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)MEM 9 – 7 NY · NY 70% → 75% +5NY 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q18:53Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Brunson assists)MEM 9 – 11 NY · NY 77% → 82% +5NY 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q13:29Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 26 – 28 NY · NY 75% → 80% +5NY 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q11:17Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MEM 30 – 35 NY · NY 80% → 85% +5NY 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML MEM +360 / NY -500
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- NY: Elo 74.8%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -383
- MEM +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.5 – 122.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −5 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +189 Elo | NY 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 120.69th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 111.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +8.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 120.23rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.2 | Pace | 100.326th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 150714th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 15976th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 0–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–4 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.