Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points25
- Nic ClaxtonAssists5
- Tyrese MartinRebounds8
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints28
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–134
- Q46.3Pacome Dadiet makes free throw 2 of 298–134
- Q46.3Pacome Dadiet makes free throw 1 of 298–133
- Q46.3Tyrese Martin personal foul98–132
- Q48.8Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound98–132
- Q411.6Jalen Wilson misses 28-foot three point jumper98–132
- Q417.2Tyrese Martin offensive rebound98–132
- Q420.2Tyson Etienne misses 25-foot three point shot98–132
- Q423.9Drake Powell defensive rebound98–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)BKN 0 – 5 NY · NY 90% → 93% +2NY 90% → 93%+2 pts
- Q19:46Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BKN 3 – 8 NY · BKN 5% → 7% +2BKN 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q16:22Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)BKN 11 – 20 NY · NY 93% → 95% +2NY 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q13:42Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)BKN 17 – 26 NY · NY 93% → 95% +2NY 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q12:59Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)BKN 21 – 29 NY · NY 92% → 94% +2NY 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -15.5
- ML BKN +750 / NY -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NY: Elo 84.1%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -793
- BKN +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 121.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −6 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +289 Elo | NY 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 88.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 118.913th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.6 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−13.2 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 118.23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.8 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15265th of 30 |
| 28th of 301340 | Elo rating | 15905th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–8 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Apr 13NY 113 @ BKN 105Picked NY 63%Hit
- Jan 21NY 99 @ BKN 95Picked NY 84%Hit
- Nov 17BKN 104 @ NY 114Picked NY 80%Hit
- Nov 15BKN 122 @ NY 124Picked NY 74%Hit
- Apr 12BKN 107 @ NY 111Picked NY 69%Hit
- Mar 23BKN 93 @ NY 105Picked NY 70%Hit
- Jan 23NY 108 @ BKN 103Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 20NY 121 @ BKN 102Picked BKN 50%Miss