Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints38
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Kel'el WareRebounds10
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints39
- Josh HartAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–140
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)132–140
- Q41.0Josh Hart offensive rebound132–140
- Q41.0Kel'el Ware blocks Karl-Anthony Towns 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot132–140
- Q43.7Norman Powell makes driving layup132–140
- Q48.1Kel'el Ware defensive rebound130–140
- Q412.1Mikal Bridges misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot130–140
- Q419.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup (Davion Mitchell assists)130–140
- Q422.7Heat offensive team rebound128–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:53Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)MIA 62 – 64 NY · NY 61% → 69% +8NY 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q36:12Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)MIA 88 – 93 NY · NY 68% → 76% +9NY 68% → 76%+9 pts
- Q35:10Norman Powell makes 28-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 93 – 95 NY · MIA 24% → 33% +9MIA 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q34:07Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 98 – 100 NY · MIA 24% → 33% +9MIA 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q410:57Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)MIA 106 – 114 NY · NY 78% → 86% +8NY 78% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML MIA +200 / NY -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- NY: Elo 57.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -212
- MIA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.0 – 123.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −55 | MIA: Usual rotation · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +50 Elo | NY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.8 | Points scored | 120.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 113.79th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +6.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 118.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.1 | Pace | 101.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 15th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15836th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–5 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.