Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints30
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Heat- Norman PowellPoints27
- Andrew WigginsAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–116
- Q422.4Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)130–116
- Q431.0Jarrett Allen makes 5-foot layup (Lonzo Ball assists)130–113
- Q449.3Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)128–113
- Q458.3Lonzo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)128–110
- Q41:19Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot (Norman Powell assists)125–110
- Q41:27Heat Full timeout125–108
- Q41:27De'Andre Hunter makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot125–108
- Q41:47De'Andre Hunter defensive rebound123–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:55Kel'el Ware makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CLE 101 – 100 MIA · MIA 41% → 51% +10MIA 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q48:34Tyrese Proctor makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 104 – 100 MIA · CLE 49% → 64% +14CLE 49% → 64%+14 pts
- Q47:16Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 8-foot two point shotCLE 104 – 102 MIA · MIA 34% → 44% +10MIA 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q46:59Jarrett Allen makes two point shotCLE 106 – 102 MIA · CLE 56% → 66% +10CLE 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q46:32Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes two point shotCLE 108 – 102 MIA · CLE 67% → 77% +9CLE 67% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML CLE +160 / MIA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 63.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -170
- CLE +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.5 – 122.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −124 | +3 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +96 Elo | MIA 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30122.3 | Points scored | 125.51st of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 119.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +5.77th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 115.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.2 | Pace | 107.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 297–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 29 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 4th of 301598 | Elo rating | 153112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−124 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | — | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–5 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Nov 10CLE 138 @ MIA 140Picked CLE 72%Miss
- Apr 28CLE 138 @ MIA 83PlayoffsPicked CLE 74%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 124 @ MIA 87PlayoffsPicked CLE 64%Hit
- Apr 23MIA 112 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 5MIA 107 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 29CLE 126 @ MIA 106Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Dec 8CLE 113 @ MIA 122Picked CLE 57%Miss