Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Donovan MitchellRebounds15
Heat- Norman PowellPoints33
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds20
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game138–140
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime138–140
- OT0.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)138–140
- OT0.0Andrew Wiggins makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jovic assists)138–140
- OT0.4Dean Wade enters the game for Lonzo Ball138–138
- OT0.4Nikola Jovic enters the game for Kel'el Ware138–138
- OT0.4Heat Full timeout138–138
- OT0.4Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point shot138–138
- OT1.5Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound135–138
- OT5.3Sam Merrill misses 23-foot three point shot135–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q447.8Norman Powell makes two point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)CLE 124 – 126 MIA · MIA 47% → 77% +30MIA 47% → 77%+30 pts
- Q434.3Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)CLE 127 – 126 MIA · CLE 19% → 71% +52CLE 19% → 71%+52 pts
- Q47.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 8-foot two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)CLE 128 – 128 MIA · MIA 2% → 49% +47MIA 2% → 49%+47 pts
- OT0.4Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point shotCLE 138 – 138 MIA · CLE 0% → 50% +50CLE 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0.0Andrew Wiggins makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jovic assists)CLE 138 – 140 MIA · MIA 42% → 100% +58MIA 42% → 100%+58 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML CLE -300 / MIA +250
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.4%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -263
- MIA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 128.0 – 120.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +73 Elo | CLE 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 124.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 118.018th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +6.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 114.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.26th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.2 | Pace | 107.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301605 | Elo rating | 152513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | — | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 28CLE 138 @ MIA 83PlayoffsPicked CLE 74%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 124 @ MIA 87PlayoffsPicked CLE 64%Hit
- Apr 23MIA 112 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 5MIA 107 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 29CLE 126 @ MIA 106Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Dec 8CLE 113 @ MIA 122Picked CLE 57%Miss
- Mar 24CLE 84 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 57%Hit