Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints28
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Franz WagnerRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–107
- Q44.0Noah Penda defensive rebound124–107
- Q48.6Pacome Dadiet misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot124–107
- Q415.1Jett Howard makes driving layup124–107
- Q429.3Tyler Kolek makes driving layup (Pacome Dadiet assists)122–107
- Q443.3Jett Howard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jase Richardson assists)122–105
- Q454.5Pacome Dadiet makes two point shot (Guerschon Yabusele assists)119–105
- Q457.5Noah Penda lost ball turnover (Guerschon Yabusele steals)119–103
- Q41:02Noah Penda defensive rebound119–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:24Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three pointerORL 20 – 18 NY · NY 50% → 57% +7NY 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q12:32Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 23 – 18 NY · ORL 43% → 50% +7ORL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q151.0Miles McBride makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotORL 26 – 23 NY · NY 47% → 54% +7NY 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q211:04Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)ORL 30 – 26 NY · NY 44% → 51% +7NY 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q26:20Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 44 – 31 NY · ORL 66% → 73% +7ORL 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML ORL +155 / NY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NY: Elo 61.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -166
- ORL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.0 – 115.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +4 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +78 Elo | NY 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 121.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 112.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +9.14th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.110th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.9 | Pace | 101.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 21st of 301481 | Elo rating | 16024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–4 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Jan 6ORL 103 @ NY 94Picked NY 80%Miss
- Dec 27NY 108 @ ORL 85Picked NY 68%Hit
- Dec 15NY 100 @ ORL 91Picked NY 61%Hit
- Dec 3ORL 106 @ NY 121Picked NY 65%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 74 @ NY 98Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Feb 14NY 100 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 55%Hit
- Jan 15ORL 98 @ NY 94Picked NY 63%Miss
- Dec 29NY 108 @ ORL 117Picked ORL 53%Hit